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By Rob Rang
Senior Analyst
NFLDraftScout.com
While it might appear early to forecast the 2010 first round, with the collegiate season halfway over NFL scouts are already sizing up the prospective talent to fill the cracks developing on NFL rosters.
Their focus is, of course, on the senior prospects, but with nearly half (15) of last year's first-round selections being underclassmen, scouts can't afford to ignore the elite juniors and even redshirt sophomore prospects on the horizon. That is especially true at positions lacking senior talent, such as quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback. A few noteworthy juniors could make an already strong defensive line class special.
Teams are listed from the current worst record to best, with opponents' winning percentage used as the initial tiebreaker for teams with the same record. The league will use this method to determine slots 1-20 next April, with playoff results and teams' record/opponents' winning percentage setting the order of spots 21-32.
2009 NFL Mock Draft - 11/9/2009
Round 1
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: Coach Raheem Morris has built an offense around running the ball. To improve defensively, the Bucs will need to stop it. Suh is the country's best player and likeliest to make an immediate impact, making him the most deserving and logical prospect to go first.
2. St. Louis Rams
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: If veteran Marc Bulger can remain healthy the second half of the season, the Rams may elect to look in another direction with this pick. The team strongly considered Mark Sanchez last year, however, proving that defensive-minded head coach Steve Spagnuolo knows this is a position of need. Clausen's experience in a pro-style offense and care with the ball might make him the most NFL-ready quarterback in the country.
3. Cleveland Browns
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: The firing of GM George Kokinis proves what Cleveland fans have know for quite some time: the Browns are essentially starting from scratch ... again. If the current (or new) coaching staff feels the same, a new quarterback might be coming ... again. Bradford, assuming his recovery from shoulder surgery goes well, will make himself available to the 2010 draft. When healthy and protected, he's shown the accuracy of an All-Pro.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee: Scott Pioli wouldn't normally invest this high of a pick on a safety. Then again, Berry isn't just another safety. Few players have dominated the SEC with the consistency that Berry has shown throughout his young career. He won't be as impressive in workouts as Taylor Mays, but is the better all-around player and a good fit for a defense desperate for playmakers.
5. Detroit Lions
Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: The offensively-inept Redskins and Rams are the only opponents the Lions have been able to keep under 26 points so far this season. GM Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz will devote at least one of Detroit's picks in 2010 toward renovating an undersized defensive line. McCoy considered leaving school last year and would have been 2009's first defensive tackle selected had he done so.
6. Tennessee Titans
Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida: If Vince Young can string together a few victories over the second half of the season, the Titans will be able to focus on areas other than quarterback. Defensive line, long a strength in Tennessee, has become a relative weakness. Dunlap, as physically gifted as any player in the country, would be an excellent first step in the youth movement needed with unrestricted free agency looming for veterans Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jevon Kearse and Dave Ball.
7. Oakland Raiders
Taylor Mays, FS, Southern California: Considering Al Davis' fascination with size/speed freaks, is there any doubt that the local product will be the pick if available?
8. Washington Redskins
Jake Locker, QB, Washington: Regardless of who the head coach is next season, the starting quarterback will not be Jason Campbell. Those who have studied Locker know he has unrivaled tools that warrant Top 10 consideration, but to actually be picked this high he'll need to finish the season - something he hasn't yet been able to do in three years as the Huskies' starting quarterback. Another season under Steve Sarkisian and Locker could enter the 2011 draft as the favorite to go No. 1.
9. Seattle Seahawks
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: Matt Hasselbeck, 34, remains Seattle's best offensive player and the heart and soul of the franchise. Two consecutive down years after dominating the NFC West four consecutive seasons, however, proves that this is a roster greatly in need of a youth movement, including at the game's most important position. McCoy's short to intermediate accuracy and mobility make him a perfect fit in a Greg Knapp offense built more around the run than the pass.
10. Buffalo Bills
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: The signing of free agent Terrell Owens proved the Bills' willingness to gamble on great athletes with off-field concerns. Owens, 35, is a pending unrestricted free agent, as is Josh Reed. Whether the Bills are led by Trent Edwards in the future or another passer, he'll need weapons. Bryant has earned comparisons to Randy Moss by some veteran scouts I've spoken with for his ability to leap over defenders and snatch the ball.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Tebow doesn't have the skill set to strike the fancy of every NFL team. With a built-in fan-base and an owner who has already publicly endorsed him, the Jaguars are a likely landing place. Only a return to consistency by David Garrard or a playoff appears may allow the Jaguars to look elsewhere with this pick.
12. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: An explosive pass rusher with the agility necessary to move to outside linebacker, Morgan is emerging as a potential top 20 selection and would make a great deal of sense for the 49ers, who are still waiting for 2005 first-round pick Manny Lawson (6.0 sacks in 29 career games) to pan out.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: Had wideout Michael Crabtree not fallen into their lap with the 10th overall pick last April, the 49ers would have selected Ole Miss OT Michael Oher. Okung isn't the same athletic talent, but would provide San Francisco with some options at the troublesome right tackle spot.
14. Miami Dolphins
Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson: Bill Parcells has proven his willingness to invest high draft picks on athletic front seven defenders. Sapp is an athletic phenom who has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but is enjoying a breakout campaign as a senior. Alternating between defensive end and linebacker for the Tigers, scouts know Sapp can move in space - making his transition to a pass-rushing OLB in this scheme a relatively easy one.
15. New York Jets
Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi: For all of Rex Ryan's bravado, the Jets are averaging less than two sacks per game through the first half of the season. Ryan has shown a willingness to gamble on athleticism, generating production from troubled but talented stars like Kris Jenkins and Braylon Edwards. Hardy has struggled with injuries, but when healthy is a game-changer capable of playing at the line of scrimmage or in space.
16. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: Denver's assimilation to a 3-4 defense has gone well, but would certainly improve with the addition of an inside linebacker with McClain's size and speed. McClain will have to work out well to warrant this high of a selection, as many highly touted defenders from Nick Saban's schemes have struggled with the conversion to the NFL.
17. San Diego Chargers
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly on the downside of his career. The diminutive Darren Sproles could parlay another season of big plays into millions as an impending free agent. Should the Chargers elect to re-sign him, they can focus in another direction with this pick. Otherwise, the versatile Spiller could provide potentially even better production at a lesser price.
18. Green Bay Packers
Charles Brown, CB, North Carolina: Chad Clifton continues to be plagued with knee problems and the team can't afford to risk injury to Aaron Rodgers with a patchwork offensive line. Brown, a former tight end, has shown greatly improved strength and tenacity as a run blocker in his second season as the Trojans' starting left tackle and is flying up draft boards.
19. Arizona Cardinals
Jahvid Best, RB, California: Kudos to head coach Ken Whisenhunt for acclimating to the talent at quarterback and receiver on this roster, but he and assistant head coach Russ Grimm remain running-game enthusiasts at heart. Insiders were stunned with the Cardinals' selection last season of Beanie Wells due to the fact that the 6-1, 228-pound rookie is so similar to 6-0, 222-pound second-year pro Tim Hightower. Surprising rookie LaRod Stephens-Howling has flashed, but Best could speed up Arizona's transition to a run-first, pass-second scheme.
20. Baltimore Ravens
Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU: GM Ozzie Newsome will have to find weapons for Joe Flacco soon with WRs Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams all entering free agency. LaFell, NFLDraftScout.com's top senior wideout, could slip on draft day if he doesn't break the 4.50 mark in the 40. As much as any talent evaluator in the business, Newsome won't let a slow time supersede LaFell's impressive film.
21. Atlanta Falcons
Joe Haden, CB, Florida: To compete with Drew Brees and the vaunted New Orleans Saints' offense, this club will need to get deeper in the defensive backfield. Haden is a big-play corner with electric speed.
22. Houston Texans
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech: Steve Slaton's sophomore slump has included disappointing stats to go along with a burgeoning fumbling problem that is threatening his playing time. Ryan Moats and Chris Brown aren't feature backs, but Dwyer has the potential to add a strong running game to complement Houston's pass-heavy attack.
23. New York Giants
Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: I can hear you already ... "What?! A guard? From IDAHO?" Considering the Giants have shown more of a willingness to use picks on relatively small-school prospects like Osi Umenyiora (Troy), Kevin Boss (Western Oregon) and Brandon Jacobs (Southern Illinois), the idea isn't so crazy - especially when considering the Giants' top three guards (Chris Snee, Rich Seubert, Kevin Boothe) are pending free agents. Watch for Iupati's name, he's rising.
24. Philadelphia Eagles
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: It didn't take long for Will Witherspoon to make his presence felt for the Eagles, but despite his experience in the middle the former Ram is best suited in coverage and not taking on blockers. Spikes, on the other hand, is as physical as they come and a perfect fit for an Eagle defense needing a plugger. He's expected to run slowly in workouts, which will drop him further than he should.
25. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: The Cowboys may struggle to keep starting DBs Terrence Newman and Gerald Sensabaugh in the fold once free agency hits. Dallas has shown a willingness to invest in raw athleticism in the past with Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick. Some scouts feel Robinson has Nnamdi Asomugha-like potential - and only needs time to develop.
26. New England Patriots
Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse: The trade of longtime standout Richard Seymour and impending free agency of NT Vince Wilfork means the Patriots will be looking to the draft for reinforcements along the d-line. Few fit better than Jones, who has been asked to play various positions up front for the Orangemen throughout his career.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama: Mount Cody, as some have called the huge Tide nose guard, is as dominant a run-stuffing presence as the college game has seen in years. The Steelers are blessed with a stellar nose guard of their own in Casey Hampton, but his struggles with conditioning and impending free agency could lead to a change.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan: The Bengals have been one of the league's pleasant surprises over the first half of the season, but may struggle to keep up their pace with the loss of DE Antwan Odom, who has 8.0 sacks when he went down with a torn Achilles. Free agency (Tank Johnson, Domata Peko, Frostee Rucker) will hit hard, as well, perhaps forcing the Bengals' hand here with Graham, who in this scheme would likely remain at end.
29. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: Williams has struggled with speed rushers at left tackle this season for the Sooners, but has the size and wingspan teams are looking for. The Seahawks may be forced to look elsewhere (Sean Locklear, perhaps?) should they want a long-term replacement for Walter Jones, but Williams could step right in and contribute on the strong side.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: The Vikings' dominant defensive line has arguably been every bit as elemental in Minnesota's 7-1 start to the season as their star-studded offense. 37-year old Pat Williams isn't going to last forever, however, and free agency is looming for backup DTs Fred Evans and Jimmy Kennedy, as well as underrated left end Ray Edwards. Blending size, versatility and technique, Odrick could infuse some youth into a unit needing it.
31. Indianapolis Colts
Syd'Quan Thompson, CB, California: Like the Saints, the Colts have often elected to draft for offense in the first round despite their defense needing repair. With two of their best cornerbacks in Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings playing for contracts (and Jackson now out for the season), however, the Colts would be wise to add depth. Thompson lacks height, but is a natural playmaker who is a surprisingly tough tackler. He'd be a star in this scheme.
32. New Orleans Saints
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Another surprise pick to make sure you're still awake on a mock draft written in October. These aren't the Same Old Saints. This team is playing defense and won't hesitate to look toward improving the weapons around Drew Brees to make him even more dangerous. Had a shoulder injury not ruined his senior campaign, Gresham might have been a top 10 pick. With the injury, he could slide where an aggressive team like the Saints could capitalize.
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"old enough to remember what a red and gold super bowl looks like"
"hopefully young enough to see another"
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